Paulo’s PulseThe technical detail
Methodology
The exact rules every number answers to. Everything published on Paulo’s Pulse is built on governed MLS data, engineered workflows, and AI-assisted research under Paulo’s direction and accountability.
Sources and order of authority
Figures derive from the San Francisco Multiple Listing Service, processed through POTM Command, a governed analytics system that applies automated ingestion, repair, data quality review, deduplication, and reporting readiness gates before any figure is published. Reports are only built when the system’s readiness check passes. Active, pending, and sold hero counts defer to InfoSparks (ShowingTime Plus), the San Francisco Association of Realtors’ statistics platform, when sources disagree.
This update’s data
Closed sales through 2026-07-21. After deduplication this update rests on 62,438 unique closed listings (2002 to present; analysis windows begin 2016). Removals this cycle: 7 sale-to-list outliers (data entry errors above 200% of list) and 4 quarantined events excluded by published data quality review decisions.
Definitions
| Closed sale | Status “Closed” or “Sold Off MLS”, deduplicated by listing number keeping the final sold state. |
| Sale vs. list | Close price as a percent of final list price. Medians reported. Values above 200% are excluded as data entry errors. |
| % over asking | Share of closed sales with sale vs. list strictly above 100%. |
| Financed / cash share | Of sales where buyer financing was actually reported. Unreported sales are excluded from the denominator, not assumed either way. This is stricter than feeds that count unreported sales as financed. |
| Days on market | Median days from list to contract as reported to the Multiple Listing Service. |
| Property types | Single Family, Condo / Townhouse (Condominium plus Townhouse), Tenancy in Common, Multi-Unit (Duplex, Triplex, Quadruplex, 5+ Units). |
| Luxury | $5M+ single family and $3M+ condominiums, roughly the top 5% of sales. |
Windows: compared to what?
- Window cascade: last 7, 30, and 90 days against the rolling 12 months, each shown beside the identical window one year earlier. Short windows are momentum clues; the rolling year is the benchmark.
- Trends: matched January to May windows each year since 2016, so seasonality never distorts the comparison.
- Districts: 2026 year to date against each district’s own January to May peak since 2016. Districts are only compared with themselves; years with fewer than seven sales do not set peaks.
- Year over year always means the same period one year prior, never the immediately preceding period.
Sample size discipline
Every figure carries its sample size or a reliability label drawn from POTM Command’s published thresholds: Strong samples support conclusions; Directional samples are momentum clues only; Anecdotal samples are disclosed but never argued from. Neighborhood cells under 15 closings are excluded from rankings entirely.
Presentation doctrine
Charts and tables follow two standards. From Edward Tufte: no chartjunk, no misleading axes, small multiples for fair comparison, and every visual must map to a decision a buyer or seller actually faces. From Patrick Carlisle’s rules for honest real estate statistics: context first (a number without a comparison is worthless), small sample discipline, medians over means, trends over snapshots, and no forecast theater. If a future update ever breaks one of these rules, this page will say so.
Reliability and revisions
All information is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed. Multiple Listing Service data changes after the fact: late-reported closings arrive, statuses are corrected, and quality review reclassifies records. Figures here are subject to change, correction, and revision between updates, and a number may differ slightly from the same number in an earlier or later update for that reason. No claim is made that any figure is 100% accurate, and no responsibility is assumed for errors or omissions. All data, including all measurements and calculations of area, is obtained from various sources and has not been, and will not be, verified by broker or MLS. All information should be independently reviewed and verified for accuracy.
What this is not
Not a forecast, not an appraisal, and not individual financial, legal, tax, or lending advice. Market data describes the past; your decision deserves a conversation about your specific block, property, and situation.